We’re quietly losing the ability to track the economy with real data.

Nearly 90% of economists doubt U.S. economic data.

At the heart of every economic conversation, from rate cuts to retiree checks is one number:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI). It tracks inflation by measuring how much prices change over time for things like rent, food, clothes, and transportation.

It sounds simple but it’s not.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

But what happens if that number isn’t real?

In June 2025, over 35% of the prices used in CPI weren’t directly collected. They were estimated.

Not measured in the real world. Imputed.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

Let’s say a price checker can’t get the cost of milk in a Chicago store this month. Instead of skipping it, the BLS might:

– Use last month’s milk price in Chicago
– Use this month’s milk price in nearby St. Louis
– Or even use a similar item like cream or cheese

That’s…

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

Different cell imputation: This is riskier, it uses the same item from another area, or a similar item from the same area.

Now you’re stretching. It’s like guessing gas prices in LA by looking at Phoenix or guessing butter using margarine.

It’s not fake but it’s no longer real,…

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

Now, back to the chart. You saw that light blue block. That’s different-cell imputation and it has surged.

We’ve gone from 9% to over 35% of all CPI data being estimated in just a few months.

That’s not a rounding error, that’s a structural shift. pic.twitter.com/p0PvJrPnZR

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

This isn’t just about eggs and gas. Let’s talk about housing, which makes up more than 30% of CPI.

It’s the single largest component.

And it’s now one of the most distorted.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

Here’s the issue: rent doesn’t move like groceries.

It’s slow, sticky, and lags.

If we’re mismeasuring rents, it means we’re misreading core inflation, the part of inflation that excludes food and energy and guides long-term Fed policy.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

And here’s where it gets dangerous:

The Fed calls itself “data dependent.” That means they base interest rate decisions on reports like CPI.

But if that data is this noisy? Then policy becomes just as uncertain.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

This can distort everything:

– Bond pricing
– Mortgage rates
– Risk appetite
– Expectations for future inflation

Because when a bad signal drives a big system, you don’t just get noise, you get misfires.

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) July 21, 2025

NEARLY 90% ECONOMISTS, 89 OF 100, SAY THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE QUALITY OF OFFICIAL U.S. ECONOMIC DATA, INCLUDING 41 SAYING VERY CONCERNED

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 25, 2025