ALBANESE’S Labor Party could easily win the next federal election by employing long-used vote fraud tactics, according to former public servant and political adviser Lex Stewart, who is now Australia’s leading voice on the issue of election fraud.
But a big shift in Australian voting patterns away from the major parties could stop this from happening, which reinforces the recent warning by Cairns News to One Nation about the need for a more unified approach to elections by minor parties.
Stewart is a long-time conservative political adviser and psephologist, or election analyst, who has studied and documented long-standing vote fraud in Australian politics, the subject of books and submissions by the late Dr Amy McGrath OAM. Other Australian psephologists such as the retired Malcolm Mackerras and Anthony Green of the ABC are not prepared to risk their necks by delving into the very real problem of vote fraud.
Stewart has drawn out attention to an article by Vern Hughes of The Conservative, a weekly online newsletter, which has highlighted the major voting shift in Australian voting patterns. “The two traditional parties around which our democracy has been organised for many decades are now in serious long-term cultural and social decline. They are propped up by incumbency and taxpayer funding. But even that can’t stop the trajectory of decline,” Hughes writes.
He highlights a national poll taken by Resolve Political Monitor in mid-April which shows 34% of people will vote for parties other than the majors, with 30% for Labor and 36% for Liberal. Labor, as we know, has gerrymandered electorates to allow it to have a majority in Parliament with only 32% of the primary vote.
Another recent poll of 1075 readers taken by Cairns News showed 95 per cent of respondents were unsatisfied with the party duopoly and intended to vote for independents and minor parties at the next federal election.
In North Queensland Katters Australian Party usually attracts around 30 per cent of the vote in state and federal elections giving the independent party three state seats and one of the largest federal seats, Kennedy.
But smaller parties have continually shot themselves in the foot by fragmenting their share of that “other parties” vote, which is why Cairns News is calling on One Nation to take the lead and co-operate with others in some sort of co-operative arrangement.
Hughes and his Democracy First.org supporters believe the next federal election will be “critical to the future of this country. We need a balance-of-power party to force a change of direction on all our institutions.”
In effect we already do have a “balance of power party” composed of those popular senators in Canberra who have spoken up in recent years against the Covid narrative. They encompass independents, One Nation, United Australia Party and the Coalition and could potentially lead a more substantial third party.
Hughes cites the case of Dai Le, who won the seat of Fowler in Sydney’s West in 2022. Described as a “centrist Independent”, Dai Le, polled 29% of the vote, but won on preferences. She defeated Labor’s Kristina Keneally (36%) and the Liberal’s Courtney Nguyen (17%).
“Because Dai Le is a centrist, the voters for other minor parties in Fowler (6% Greens, 5% UAP, 4% One Nation, 3% LibDems) gave their no.2 preference to her,” Hughes notes. “Normally they would give them to Labor or Liberal, but because Dai Le is a centrist they went to her first.”
Hughes points out that the national vote for “others” at 34% is higher than it has ever been. It is high enough for a third party candidate to win in more than 68 seats out of the 150 in the House of Reps – providing the Green voters (13%) and the One Nation voters (5%) and the Other voters (16%) give their no.2 preference to a centrist third party candidate.
Hughes says if Dai Le had not been in the field, those voters would have given their no.2 preference to Labor or Liberal as they usually do, and Kristina Keneally would now be on the ALP front bench.
“So, what would happen if there is a centrist like Dai Le in every contest? Well, in 68 seats out of 150, the centrist would win,” he says. “This analysis is based on the votes actually cast in 2022 by voters for various Others. In other words, there were already enough votes for others in 68 seats in 2022 for centrist third party candidates to win.
“Had that happened, politics in Canberra would now be unrecognisable. Richard Marles, Bill Shorten, Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles would not be in Parliament. Nor would AngusTaylor or Keith Pitt or Paul Fletcher. Susan Ley would have narrowly survived.
“All this would have happened in 2022 without any more votes for Others being needed. All that was required was that there be a centrist candidate in the middle of the field to attract the no.2 preferences ahead of the majors.”
Hughes also noted that the Resolve Monitor poll figure of 34% for others was even higher than that recorded for others in 2022. “All of which means, that with some serious organisation, a very large number of seats can be won by others in the next federal election in 2025.”
Meanwhile Lex Stewart has offered his two most recent submissions to the federal parliament’s electoral committee on vote fraud. He also has a submission from one of Sydney’s top lawyers. He can be contacted at stewart.lex@gmail.com.
