“The ISM Services prices paid index jumped to 69.9, signaling rising costs, while services employment fell to 46.4, indicating contraction in jobs.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-services-activity-flatlined-july-ism-data-shows-2025-08-05/
“U.S. factory orders dropped 4.8% in July, matching forecasts but showing weakening manufacturing demand.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-factory-orders-drop-july-2025-08-04/
“Goldman Sachs reported a net downward revision of 258,000 jobs over May and June 2025, the largest two-month negative adjustment outside of a formal recession since 1968.”
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/05/goldman-sachs-jobs-revision-2025
The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of stagflation — rising inflation with slowing growth. Costs are going up fast for services, but businesses are cutting jobs. Factory orders keep falling. The huge job revisions tell a deeper story: the official numbers were too optimistic. The government and private sector both shed jobs, including 109,000 cuts in stable local government roles. This is not a simple data glitch. It points to weakening confidence and lower future tax revenues. The labor market’s strength was overstated for months. Policymakers may have made decisions on false hopes. The economy looks like it is quietly sliding into a slow, structural slowdown instead of a sharp recession. Markets and policymakers are flying blind. The canary in the coal mine stopped singing a while ago. Starbucks having six straight quarters of shrinking sales only adds to the gloom.
This Goldman Sachs note is a quiet crack in the entire labor market narrative. A net downward revision of 258,000 jobs over just two months with May and June 2025 marks the largest two month negative adjustment outside of a formal NBER-defined recession since 1968. That’s a… https://t.co/AwrdbKeez5
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) August 4, 2025
BREAKING 🚨: Starbucks$SBUX has now posted six straight quarters of shrinking-same store sales 📉 That’s not great pic.twitter.com/L3USx8pqSL
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 4, 2025
