A new poll from the University of California, Irvine has come up with a surprising result in California’s gubernatorial race, showing Republican Steve Hilton narrowly leading Democrat Xavier Becerra among likely voters in Orange County.
Orange County is the third-largest county in the state and was once reliably red but has trended blue in recent years.
The survey, conducted June 9 to 12, found Hilton at 47 percent and Becerra at 44 percent, a three-point edge that falls within the poll’s margin of error, but is still a great sign for Republicans.
Hilton, the former Fox News host and political strategist, celebrated the poll results on X, declaring, “We have moved ahead of Becerra in California’s 3rd largest county. Millions of Californians are saying: Enough Is Enough! Let’s Fix California!”
BREAKING: We have moved ahead of Becerra in California’s 3rd largest county. Millions of Californians are saying: Enough Is Enough! Let’s Fix California! pic.twitter.com/C4Gzaj1tzX
— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) August 1, 2026
Orange County has been facing significant political shifts over the past decade, with Democrat voter registration outpacing Republican and nearly a third of voters identifying as independents.
In the poll, Hilton dominated among Republicans with 94 percent support, while Becerra held 82 percent of Democrats.
Independents favored Becerra 46 percent to 38 percent.
“Among likely voters in the gubernatorial race, men back Hilton by 14 points; women support Becerra by 8 points. The same pattern holds on the congressional ballot: men favor the Republican candidate, women the Democrat,” the pollsters found.
Poll director Jon Gould stated, “What this poll tells us is that Orange County residents are anxious. Anxious about the cost of a home, skeptical of leaders at every level of government, and not persuaded that either party has earned its trust. The candidates who find a way to speak to that shared urgency, and who can actually bring their supporters to the polls in November, will be in the strongest position to win one of the most genuinely competitive counties in the nation.”
Hilton has actively courted voters uneasy with Trump by taking out full-page ads asking whether someone can be “anti-Trump but still vote for me.”
Other recent surveys have shown Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and California attorney general, holding double-digit leads statewide, including a mid-July Public Policy Institute of California poll that put him ahead 61 percent to 36 percent among likely voters.
The two candidates advanced from the June primary under California’s top two system and will face off on November 3.
Hilton has focused his campaign on housing costs, bureaucracy, public safety, and broader dissatisfaction with the status quo in California.
Ad block users: Some site features may not work correctly while an ad blocker is enabled, because they break scripts and content this website depends on. If you can’t see comments below, for example, please disable your ad blocker.
