This market is close to breaking point. There is now so much leverage that futures-implied equity financing costs are at the same spread to SOFR as during the height of the GFC. And Japan is about to suck a couple hundred billion of levered balance sheet out of US money markets.
And this is not just showing up in equity markets. It’s broad across assets (swap spreads, invoice spreads, equity spreads, all across global markets, xccy basis etc). All rising together. This is the first time since the GFC all major CBs have been contracting money together. pic.twitter.com/WKC4eoZcMo
— Whitney Baker (@TotemMacro) November 28, 2024
Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 asked rates specialist George Goncalves about the Yen carry trade.
Here is @bondstrategist‘s in-depth answer in full.
Happy Thanksgiving!! 🦃
Apple 🔊 https://t.co/2mWKEDq8Ef
Spotify 🔊 https://t.co/CUtUjHxezF
YouTube 📽️ https://t.co/2JD6BmM90X pic.twitter.com/tcjjbmzHnF— Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) November 28, 2024
This time its different. pic.twitter.com/Cb4gyGYbE8
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 29, 2024
Can someone kindly explain me how is it possible that at the #BOJ are still convinced they are fighting deflation? 🙏🏻 https://t.co/eyB1nYhTpO
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 28, 2024
Alright people. Whoever is unwinding his $JPY carry trades like a madman is likely making waves in the OTC derivatives market implying the brokers are holding massive bags of #stocks delta hedging to unload.
Considering broad indexes are not impacted and semiconductor stocks are… https://t.co/gfPozlNlwI
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 29, 2024
just in case you needed any further proof that troubles are brewing https://t.co/5HtIEeZAu3 pic.twitter.com/JJTE4J70c2
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 29, 2024
.#SP500 BLOW-OFF TOP
Sahm rule triggered in July when the 3 month MA of the unemployment rate increased by 0.53 % from its low in July 23. Yield Curve uninverted in Sept. Both pointing to a recession by Q1 or Q2 in 2025 as bearish divergences loom over S&P 500 monthly chart$SPX pic.twitter.com/UN5VropYMb— King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) November 28, 2024
BREAKING NEWS
THE BANK OF JAPAN SUFFERED RECORD VALUATION LOSSES ON ITS GOVERNMENT BOND HOLDINGS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FISCAL YEAR
$90.03 BILLION
The circus is hitting the mainstream.
— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) November 27, 2024
🍿 POPCORN ALERT 🍿#Korea #Tech #Stocks are now trading BELOW August 5th lows https://t.co/5HtIEeZAu3 pic.twitter.com/vwIHAlJZsf
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 29, 2024
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