There’s no denying it anymore. The signs of an economic downturn are everywhere, and it’s about to get ugly. JPMorgan Chase, once a beacon of Wall Street strength, has begun to trim its workforce. They’re cutting fewer than 1,000 jobs this month, and that’s just the start. This is not a “normal” adjustment, this is a direct consequence of an economy in turmoil. The bank may say these cuts are part of “regular management,” but let’s call it what it is: a desperate attempt to adjust to the reality of a slowing economy.
And it’s not just JPMorgan. The auto loan delinquency rate has just hit its highest level in 14 years. That’s a clear indicator that consumers are stretching themselves too thin, failing to keep up with debt payments—something that happens when wages stagnate and prices soar.
But the real kicker? US tariffs are on the verge of rising to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Trump’s proposed tariff rates would push the average US tariff to 17.7%. That’s a massive shock to the system. A 10% tax on all imports, 25% on Mexico and Canada, and a staggering 60% on Chinese goods. Global trade as we know it will grind to a halt. The damage will be felt in every corner of the economy, from manufacturing to consumer goods, and it will only escalate from there.
For decades, tariffs have steadily declined as globalization took hold. But if these new rates go through, we’ll see a complete reversal—one that’s sure to trigger massive disruptions. Manufacturers won’t be able to compete, and consumers will be hit with sky-high prices.
Let’s not forget the news from Chevron. The oil giant is laying off 15%-20% of its global workforce—around 9,000 employees. This follows the same pattern we’ve seen from every major company: cutbacks, layoffs, and retrenchment. It’s a clear signal that businesses are bracing for impact. Chevron’s move is just another piece of the puzzle that shows this downturn is already in full swing.
And then there’s Peter Schiff, always the first to call it like it is. He’s forecasting inflation and long-term interest rates—including mortgage rates—will be higher in 2025 than they were in 2024. The economic drag this will create could very well trigger an official recession by the end of the year. Stagflation, the Fed’s worst nightmare, is coming. Inflation is already surging, and when interest rates rise, the cost of living will skyrocket. People will get squeezed from all sides, and the economy will buckle under the weight of it all.
But let’s not overlook the rising yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB), which recently hit 1.36%. Schiff is warning that it won’t stop there. Once it hits 1.5%, we’ll see a ripple effect throughout global markets. And if it breaks 2%, we’re looking at an all-out collapse. This is the warning sign that financial markets can’t ignore. The bond market is telling us we’re heading toward a storm, and it’s coming fast.
So here’s the takeaway: The economy is already in the early stages of a crisis. Layoffs are spreading. Tariffs are about to spike. Inflation is out of control. If you’re not preparing for the worst, you’re already behind. The time to act is now—invest in hard assets, keep a close eye on the markets, and get ready for a bumpy ride. The pain is just beginning, and it’s only going to get worse from here.
Sources:
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1889714277675569376
https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1889650654420885998
https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1889732584088719386
https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1889836325416923505
