Americans are cutting spending, saving more, and the Atlanta Fed just confirmed a recession is here

The numbers came in as expected—January PCE up 0.3% month-over-month, 2.5% year-over-year, core at 2.6%. Nothing shocking, no major surprises. But look beyond the headlines, and the cracks are widening fast.

Personal income surged 0.9%, more than double expectations. Normally, that would be a good sign, but here’s the problem—spending dropped. The savings rate just jumped, and when that happens, history is clear: a recession follows within 1-3 months.

Americans don’t start saving aggressively because they feel optimistic. They do it when they see trouble ahead. Companies are tightening, layoffs are stacking up, and people are getting cautious. Even Walmart’s CEO is seeing it firsthand—consumers are running out of money before the end of the month, buying smaller pack sizes, cutting back wherever they can. That’s not confidence. That’s survival mode.

And then there’s the Atlanta Fed. Just last week, they projected Q1 GDP growth at 2.3%. Now? -1.5%. That’s a complete collapse in expectations, signaling that whatever “growth” the government was selling has disappeared overnight. Turns out, when debt-fueled government spending slows down, there’s not much real economy left.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is already setting the narrative. He’s calling this the “hangover” from Biden’s spending spree, claiming in 6 to 12 months, it’ll be Trump’s economy. That excuse is locked and loaded. But here’s the question—when GDP contracted under Biden, they told us it wasn’t a recession. What will they say now?

And then there’s Jamie Dimon. The JPMorgan CEO just unloaded 33% of his stock last week. The timing is impeccable. When the biggest names in finance start cashing out, they’re not guessing—they see what’s coming.