Are U.S. Treasuries finally as risky as stocks?
First, what is a Treasury?
When you buy a U.S. Treasury bond, you’re lending money to the government. They promise to pay you interest (called a coupon) and then return your money when the bond matures.
Safe, right? Except prices can swing if yields change.
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 26, 2025
In 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield was just 0.5%.
By 2023, it had shot up to ~5%. That rise crushed the value of existing bonds.
The 20-year Treasury lost ~38% peak-to-trough. The biggest collapse in modern U.S. bond market history.
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 26, 2025
Inflation first. After COVID, supply chains broke and governments pumped money into the economy.
Inflation spiked to 9% in 2022 way above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Even by 2025, markets expect long-run inflation around 2.4% that forced yields higher.
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 26, 2025
Next: real yields. These are yields after adjusting for inflation.
In history, the 10-year real yield averaged ~1.3%. In 2025, it’s ~2.1%.
That’s a massive jump. Investors want much more real return, not just protection from inflation.
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 26, 2025
The Federal Reserve is now a captive long-duration investor, holding nearly 38% of Treasuries beyond 10 years and 60% of its total portfolio at the long end.
Rising yields amplify unrealized losses, slow quantitative tightening, and could force Powell to cut rates simply to stabilize bond markets rather than stimulate growth.
What this chart really reveals is that the Fed has quietly painted itself into a corner. Nearly 38% of the Treasuries it holds now mature beyond 10 years, and almost 60% of its total securities portfolio (Treasuries + MBS) sits at the long end. Historically, the Fed kept more… https://t.co/IdoPgB2qho
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) August 26, 2025
The money supply just hit an all time high and we’re all talking about easing. pic.twitter.com/TZqUzHxHo2
— Nobody Special (@JG_Nuke) August 26, 2025
JUST IN 🚨: President Trump says he will soon have a Fed majority to cut interest rates 👀 pic.twitter.com/KGv5dE1P5E
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 26, 2025
With a FEDERAL RESERVE governor getting fired…
Here’s when it all clicked for me on why gold matters ⬇️
Alan Greenspan… former Fed Chair, once said the quiet part out loud:
“The United States can pay ANY debt… because it can print money.”
That’s not stability. That’s… pic.twitter.com/E8GEEzj9pu
— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) August 26, 2025
GOLD
Flight to safety intensifies. pic.twitter.com/TlzOkwPaao
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 26, 2025
