Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk,
Trump’s support, even among Republicans is dropping. But does it matter?
More Opposition than Support
Pew reports Trump’s Tariffs and ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Face More Opposition Than Support
Six months into his second term, public evaluations of President Donald Trump’s job performance have grown more negative. His job approval stands at 38% (60% disapprove), and fewer Americans now attribute several positive personal characteristics to him than did so during the campaign.
- Trump’s tariff policy and the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ are viewed more negatively than positively by Americans.
- By about 2 to 1, more say Trump is making the federal government work worse, rather than better
- Trump’s job approval rating slips, including among his 2024 voters
- Trump is widely viewed as standing up for his beliefs, while far fewer say he’s honest or a good role model
- Republicans narrowly disapprove of administration’s handling of Epstein information, and nearly 4 in 10 do not trust what is being shared
Role Model, Honesty, Beliefs
Confidence in Trump
Making Government Work Better
That one is interesting because of the partisan breakdown.
Only 55 percent of Republicans or those who lean Republican think Trump is making the federal government work better.
70 Percent Disapprove of Trump’s Epstein Handling
I wonder to what extent Epstein, Israel, and Ukraine collectively account for Trump’s 10 percentage point drop in the lead chart.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The partisan divide is also interesting on this one. Only 21 percent of Rep/Lean Rep strongly approve of the OBBBA. However 61 percent of Dem/Lean Dem strongly disapprove.
Unsure Rep/Lean Rep are a big 23 percent.
Tariff Policies
Only 40 percent of Rep/Lean Rep are mostly positive about tariffs.
Expected Results
Trump is sure to denounce the poll as a fraud, but it makes sense to me.
There is a lot of dissent over Epstein, Tariffs, and the OBBBA that barely passed Congress.
The only thing mildly unexpected is how many Republicans are sitting on the fence.
Does Any of This Matter?
That’s the real question, and the answer is uncertain.
The incumbent party normally loses seats in midterms. So who will be more energized?
Democrats keep attacking the wrong stuff and have not even backed down on woke nonsense despite overwhelming bipartisan support to do so.
Gerrymandering wars are on, and arguably Republicans have a better shot at success.
Trump’s Hyperbolic Nonsense
Tariffs are having a huge positive impact on the Stock Market. Almost every day, new records are set. In addition, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars are pouring into our Country’s coffers. If a Radical Left Court ruled against us at this late date, in an attempt to bring down or disturb the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the U.S.A. has ever seen, it would be impossible to ever recover, or pay back, these massive sums of money and honor. It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION! If they were going to rule against the wealth, strength, and power of America, they should have done so LONG AGO, at the beginning of the case, where our entire Country, while never having a chance at this kind of GREATNESS again, would not have been put in 1929 style jeopardy. There is no way America could recover from such a judicial tragedy, but I know our Court System better than anyone, there is no one in history that has gone through the trials, tribulations and uncertainties such as I, and absolutely terrible, but also amazingly beautiful, things can happen. Our Country deserves SUCCESS AND GREATNESS, NOT TURMOIL, FAILURE, AND DISGRACE. GOD BLESS AMERICA!
So, we collect tariffs from US businesses and consumers, and it would be impossible to pay them back.
Yet, Trump says he’s considering rebate checks for Americans based on tariff revenue
Somehow it would be impossible to pay back $300 billion out of a budget of $7 trillion. Yet, possible to send out rebate checks of some of that money.
The Midterm Election Determining Factors
This will come down to is jobs, inflation, and recession. Epstein, Russia, and Israel are on the far back burner unless a big war breaks out.
For now, the economy is in a muddle-through mode. But big court decisions are coming up on reciprocal tariffs and birthright citizenship.
I have 95 percent confidence Trump will lose reciprocal tariffs in the Appeals Court. I have less confidence if the Supreme Court reviews the decision (although it’s logically clear Trump should lose).
Meanwhile, the strong likelihood is jobs are weakening much faster than the BLS says. This is what happens at economic turns. And jobs is another area where Trump has overpromised and underdelivered.
Untangle the above mess with confidence, and you have your midterm answer. The polls are too early to tell.
