Palantir printed $149.24 this morning. That’s up 104% year to date. Volume hit 23.58 million shares by midday. Market cap sits at $352.1 billion. PE ratio is 651.68. The stock hit its high of $155.68 on July 17. Since then, price faded. Weekly RSI shows negative divergence. Momentum is soft. Price is not.
$PLTR is up +100% YTD. When it tops, the market tops, it epitomises this mispriced market pic.twitter.com/XFCqAjOdwQ
— The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) July 21, 2025
The S&P 500 tagged a long-term resistance line. Nasdaq volume is down 12% week over week. VIX ticked up 4.3%. Hedge funds are rotating out of tech. Real assets and defensive sectors are seeing inflows. VNQ and XLP printed green. XLK and ARKK faded.
S&P500
TOPS IN!!
Expect erratic behaviour for some weeks before it lets go. pic.twitter.com/BsIMYGIFaN
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 21, 2025
Looks like we tagged a key historic trend line today.
On a negative weekly RSI divergence no less.
Interesting times.$SPX pic.twitter.com/XhaiSMGFz2— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) July 21, 2025
Fitch Ratings dropped its midyear update on July 21. The agency downgraded 25% of US sector outlooks to “deteriorating.” Healthcare took the biggest hit. Medicaid cuts and ACA eligibility changes are expected to squeeze margins for hospitals and insurers. The downgrade was tied to the July 4 tax and spending bill, which locked deficits above 7% of GDP and pushed debt-to-GDP projections to 135% by 2029.
Retail and consumer sectors followed. Tariffs announced earlier this year are expected to drive up prices and squeeze margins. Apparel, electronics, and home goods are flagged as vulnerable. Discretionary spending is projected to fall. Staples may hold, but volume is soft.
Regional banks are under pressure. Liquidity remains tight. Interest income is lagging behind deposit costs. Fitch expects high-yield bond defaults to rise to 4.5% and leveraged loan defaults to hit 6.0% this year. That’s a direct hit to credit-sensitive lenders.
The 10-year Treasury yield printed 4.35% this morning. That’s the highest since July 9. Bond desks flagged the move as “rate stress without panic.” Credit spreads in high-yield widened 3 basis points. Investment-grade stayed flat. Repo desks are holding cash. No rotation into short-duration. Just a stall.
Palantir’s rally is tied to AI contracts and government expansion. Revenue for the last twelve months was $3.11 billion. Gross margin is 80.01%. Net margin is thin. EPS forecast for 2025 is $0.37. That’s up 362% year over year. But valuation is stretched. Price-to-sales ratio sits at 122. Forward PE is 406. Institutional ownership is 45%. Retail flow dominates.
Chicago desks flagged the RSI break. Miami traders called PLTR “the top signal for retail euphoria.” New York macro desks tracked the Fitch downgrade as a structural shift. The downgrade came without press. Just a quiet update on Fitch Wire.
Palantir is still running. But the market is tagging resistance. When it turns, it won’t be gradual.
Sources
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-buy-above-150-130002250.html
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/17/palantir-stock-buy-at-the-high/
https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/palantir-defies-bears-leads-s-and-p-500-in-2025/
https://noortrends.ae/en/u-s-sectors-face-downgrades-amid-policy-uncertainty/07/22/market-updates/
https://newsnreleases.com/2025/04/08/america-retail-consumer-sectors-deteriorating/
