Consumer confidence hits 6-month high. Inflation outlook drops. Florida, Texas, Utah lead state economies. Tariff panic fades.

Consumer confidence just hit a 6-month high. The University of Michigan’s July survey clocked sentiment at 61.8, up from 60.7 in June. That’s a 1.8% bump. It’s the strongest reading since February. Inflation expectations dropped hard. One-year outlook fell to 4.4%. Five-year dropped to 3.6%. Both are the lowest since February. The tariff panic that hit in April is fading. Trump’s “liberation day” announcement triggered a wave of fear. That fear is now receding.

The Current Conditions Index rose to 66.8. Expectations moved to 58.6. Both beat forecasts. But sentiment is still 16% below December 2024 levels. Consumers are cautious. They’re watching prices. They’re watching trade. The inflation drop is helping. But the mood is fragile.

States are stepping in. With recession risk still elevated, governors are pitching their economies as safe zones. Indiana is touting hundreds of billions in committed investments. Georgia says job creation remains strong. Wisconsin is pushing its fiscal discipline. CNBC’s 2025 competitiveness study ranked state economies using GDP growth, job creation, fiscal health, and exposure to tariffs. Economy was the top metric. It showed up 222 times across 50 state websites. Infrastructure came second at 203.

Federal budget cuts are hitting hard. States that rely on federal spending are feeling it. Tariff exposure is another drag. States tied to international trade are seeing pressure. But some are holding up.

Here are the top 10 strongest state economies in 2025:

  1. Florida
  2. Texas
  3. North Carolina
  4. Delaware
  5. New York
  6. Washington
  7. Idaho
  8. Utah
  9. Georgia
  10. South Carolina

Florida scored 363 out of 445. Texas came in second with 352. Utah led in GDP growth at 4.5%. Idaho posted 3.9%. Georgia’s foreign direct investment hit $9.7 billion. South Carolina’s job growth in construction rose 7% year-over-year. These states are absorbing shocks. They’re building through it.

The federal government is shrinking. Tariffs are shifting. But the strongest states are adapting. They’re not waiting for Washington. They’re selling stability.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/18/inflation-outlook-tumbles-to-pre-tariff-levels-in-latest-university-of-michigan-survey.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/12/10-strongest-us-economies-recession-top-states-for-business-rankings.html

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-07-18/preliminary-consumer-sentiment-rises-618-july-1-year-inflation-fears-drop

https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/consumer-reaches-five-month-high-in-early-july-

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/these-are-americas-10-strongest-state-economies-best-prepared-for-a-recession/6333673/



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