“Alongside geopolitical risks, not least the spectre of an escalation in US-China trade tensions, these factors will preserve depreciatory pressure on the yuan.”
As we found in our October trip to Shanghai and Beijing, the overwhelming majority of Chinese clients have been expecting a Trump victory. Indeed, many of those who expressed a preference either way indicated that a Trump win would be preferable.
The initial market reaction to a Trump win has been clearly negative for the renminbi, moving up from 7.10 to as high as 7.17. Our view on the topic is in line with the market’s initial movements in that a Trump victory creates an environment for a weaker RMB.
think.ing.com/articles/what-does-trump-mean-for-china-ot/
The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $382.3 billion in 2022, a 8.3 percent increase ($29.4 billion) over 2021.
U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in China (stock) was $126.1 billion in 2022, a 9.0 percent increase from 2021.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
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